2018 NFL QB Trade Value Part II

Part II of the NFL QB trade value column. Who’s number 1?

2 comments

If you missed Part 1 from last month, or need a detailed refresher regarding the rules:

2018 NFL QB Trade Value Part I

Here we go with Part II.  Enjoy.

Group C:  “No, BUT we can talk about it as long as no one hears about it.”

17.  Alex Smith: $18 million

Former #1 overall pick Alex Smith.  On his third team in 14 seasons.  I know what you’re thinking,  “Alex Smith is a bust.  Alex Smith is average at best.  He’s just a game manager.”  But guys, Alex Smith is really good.  He’s 90-63-1 as a starting QB, and since 2010 he’s 70-32 as a starting QB!  He hasn’t had a losing record since 2010.  He has a better winning percentage than Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Cam Newton, and Matt Stafford!

I feel bad for Alex Smith.  In 2012, Jim Harbaugh decided to roll with Kaepernick and he took that team to the Super Bowl.  This year, the Chiefs decided to move on with Mahomes (for obvious reasons) and he’s taken that team to ANOTHER LEVEL.  Poor Alex Smith.  I feel like this storyline has the potential to be a Netflix Original.

Did you know he holds the record for most passes to start a season without throwing an interception?  287 passes without throwing an interception in 2017.

16.  Philip Rivers: $22 million

Pop quiz:  Does Philip Rivers have more Pro Bowl appearances or kids?  Answer:  Kids- he has 8 kids compared to 7 Pro Bowl appearances.  8 kids… shooters shoot, I guess.  He’s only 6 kids away from tying Antonio Cromartie’s all-time NFL Record for kids!

After being drafted 4th overall by the Giants and being traded to San Diego (thinking about that Eli draft moment still makes me cringe) he sat (and probably bitched) behind Drew Brees for two years.  After Brees signed with Miami New Orleans, Rivers led the Chargers to a 14-2 record in his first season as a starter.  Since being named the starter, Philip Rivers has never missed a game for the Chargers (no wonder he has 8 kids).  196 straight games without missing a game and has never thrown for at least 20 touchdowns in every season.  I know Eli has two Super Bowls, but can we all agree that Philip Rivers has had a better career numbers wise?

Eli Manning:  112-106 record, 60% completion percentage, 52,482 yards, 342 TDs, 229 INTs, 83.7 passer rating.

Philip Rivers:  108-88 record, 64.3% completion percentage, 51,504 yards, 353 TDs, 168 INTs, 95.2 passer rating.

In 2007, Rivers played six days after a knee scope on a torn ACL against the Pats in the AFC Championship game.  He played with a torn ACL.  I’ll never forget that game; I’ll also think of Ladaian Tomlinson every time I think of that game. LT sat on the sidelines the entire game with his helmet and hood on because his knee was fucked up.  It was the worst body language display from an athlete I’ve ever seen.  He looked like he was warming up to be an extra in the next Star Wars movie.

sd-sp-pfd-lt-afc-championship-chargers-0810.jpg

15.  Matt Stafford: $26.5 million

I love this clip of Matt Stafford –  it’s maybe one of my favorite clips ever.  Matt Stafford will have my respect forever for this.

But did you know Matt Stafford has zero playoff wins as a starting QB?  I didn’t.  There’s no excuse for that.  Stafford is good enough to get his team to the playoffs and win a playoff game for them.  Still only 30 years old, Stafford will win a playoff game before his career is over.  If not, at least he can have the title of best QB without a playoff win.

Crazy Matt Stafford records:

  • He was the first player in NFL History to complete 60% or more of all passes in each game in a season.  Whoa.
  • Fastest player to reach 15,000/20,000/25,000/30,000 career passing yards.
  • Fastest player to reach 3,000 completions.

I guess it’s easy to break those records when you have Calvin Johnson on your team.

calvin.gif

14.  Kirk Cousins: $27 million

$27 million a year for Kirk Cousins.  There’s nothing wrong with Kirk Cousins, but $27 million… eeeeek!  Is Captain Kirk a top-10 QB right now?  I think so.  But The Vikings are paying him a fully-guaranteed $84 million over three years.  That’s going ALL in with your team.  People talk about the Rams window, but what about the Vikings?  You know what’s weird?  The Redskins drafted RGIII with the first overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Then with the 102nd pick, they drafted Kirk Cousins.  What do you think RGIII was thinking?   Has that ever happened before?  Poor Redskin fans ; they thought they had a franchise QB in RGIII after his rookie year.  NOPE.  Then they thought they had a franchise QB in Cousins after he took over.  NOPE.

Kirk is 26-30-1 as a starting QB in the NFL.  However, he’s led his team to 20-plus points in 32 of a possible 48 games in Washington and held a 22-9-1 record as a starter in those 32 games.  But for some reason Washington didn’t want to pay Kirk over $25 million a year.  They said, “Hey Kirk, thanks for the past couple of years but we’d rather pay Alex Smith $18 million a year and win one or two less games. ”  That’s essentially what Washington did right?  And the Vikings decided to go the total opposite way.  They said “fuck it – let’s pay the guy and make him our franchise QB and hope he can take us to the Super Bowl.”

Kirk seems like a super corny dude.  I don’t think Kirk and I would be friends.

https://sports.yahoo.com/kirk-cousins-files-trademark-vike-effort-keep-cheesy-phrase-alive-minnesota-183938832.html

Yup – confirmed. Kirk is corny as fuck.

13.  Matt Ryan: $17 million

I have a theory: Falcon fans hate Matt Ryan.  I don’t have any valid reasons, but I just have this weird feeling that most Falcon fans are sick and annoyed of Matt Ryan.  After their Super Bowl meltdown, it seems as if that feeling has multiplied by 1000.  The reason Matt Ryan will forever be under appreciated in Atlanta?  The ghost of Mike Vick.  It’s impossible to replace Mike Vick in Atlanta; he’s the most popular Atlanta athlete of all time.  That’s why Matt Ryan will never get the respect he deserves unless he wins a Super Bowl.

Since Matt Ryan entered the league, the Falcons have made the playoffs six times and won the Super Bowl once.  From 2008 -2018, there’s only four quarterbacks who have thrown more touchdowns than Matt Ryan:  Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady.  He holds the franchise record for most career wins, he’s a former league MVP, and he’s only 31! But for some weird reason I just have that feeling Falcon fans hate Matt Ryan.  I’m not the only one that feels that way right?  And I have a feeling Atlanta rappers, like Migos, 21 Savage, TI, etc., hate Matt Ryan even more.  I would have included Donald Glover, but there’s no way that dude likes sports.

And I might be TOTALLY WRONG here – it’s just what I think.  I have no proof of this at all.  Atlanta fans might LOVE Matt Ryan like they love Paper Boi.  But I guarantee you half of Atlanta would rather have Quavo as their starting QB.  I am actually dead serious about that.

12.  Andrew Luck: $24.4 million

Andrew Luck was considered one of the best QB’s in the league after the 2014-2015 season.  That feels like a lifetime ago.  But there was no other QB you would have taken over Andrew Luck to build your team around after the 2014 season.  He was only 24 years old and he lead the Colts to the playoffs in the first three years of his career.  In 2014, he threw for over 4,500 yards, 40 touchdowns, and took his team to the AFC Championship game before losing to Brady and the Pats.

And then he just disappeared…. He was the Kawhi Leonard of the NFL before Kawhi Leonard.  We don’t really know what the fuck happened to these guys.  We all know Andrew Luck had shoulder surgery but the whole situation was handled weirdly, just like the whole Kawhi saga.  Why did the recovery process take so long?  Why did it take longer than they expected?  Was it really caused by a snowboarding accident?  Or was it from the hits he took because the Colts said fuck it we don’t need to protect Andrew Luck?  It’s really not that hard.  Protect the most valuable guy on your team. The guy who took you to playoffs each of his first three years in the league and you’re paying $25 million a year.  That would be like owning a Maserati and parking it in the middle of the street during a Hail Storm.

11.  Jimmy Garoppolo: $37 million!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

$37 million. I mean what the hell.  Has anyone done less to earn $37 million than Jimmy GQ?  He spent the first three years living his best life in New England as Tom Brady’s backup, started a whopping TWO games in three years, then got traded to San Francisco where the 49ers made him the highest paid player in the NFL after FIVE GAMES!!!!

In his 8 games with the 49ers, they have gone 6-2 and Jimmy GQ has thrown 12 TDs and 8 INTs (not good).  Every Niners fan will tell you that Jimmy is absolutely worth it.  They have their franchise quarterback and they have no problem paying the man.  But after tearing his ACL, they have to be nervous.  And if they say they’re not, they’re lying through their teeth.

Here’s how the Niners faired statistically before and after Jimmy GQ:

jimmu

Is that why they decided to pay him?  I guess they didn’t really have a choice but to pay him after they traded their second round pick for him.  Talk about going ALL IN.  By the way, in case you didn’t know, Jimmy G signed with Jordan Brand and went on a date with a Porn Star this past summer.  Seriously, tell me someone who’s done more with less than Jimmy GQ.  The guy is a THIEF!!!!!!!

10.  Dak Prescott: $725,848

$725,848… yes, you read that right.  Dallas is paying their QB a little over $700k.  I wanted to rank Dak higher because $700k is cheaper than what I pay for rent in New York City.  The five consecutive games with less than 200 passing yards streak was ridiculous.  Those are Tim Tebow numbers.*  Maybe it’s not his fault, maybe it’s Linehan and Garrett’s fault (probably), but less than 200 yards in 5 consecutive starts is insane.  Dak also has 11 games in the past two years in which he has thrown one or less touchdowns.  ONE or less touchdowns in 11 of his last 20 games!  That has to be some kind of record.  Take a look at Dak’s QB grid progression from 2016-2018.  I think it’s trending in the wrong direction…

2016 Regular Season…WOW.dak 1.jpeg

2017 Regular Season…ehhhh not bad.dak 2

2018 Regular Season…shit.dak 4

But Dak is only 25 years old and he’s shown he can be a quarterback in the league.  He still has time to figure the league out.  It’s crazy to give up on Dak right now.  With a legit offensive coordinator and system you don’t think Dak can be a  good quarterback in the league?  Imagine Dak in McVay’s system.  He probably cant make the same throws Goff can make but you don’t think he’d be a legit quarterback?  Paying your QB $725k is ridiculous.  What are the Cowboys doing right now?  Talk about wasting an opportunity.

The worst part of this?  We never got to witness an all time Dez moment.  Can you imagine Dez during the less than 200 yards in five consecutive games streak?  that would have been an all time classic meltdown.    Speaking of Dez – Why hasn’t Bleacher Report or Facebook created a mini doc series about his current situation?  Wouldn’t that be pretty interesting?  A mini 5-episode documentary following Dez around.  That would be excellent TV.

I have a really funny story about Dak.  We were out in Dallas and got a table at Klutch (#humblebrag).  Next thing I know, Dak is at our table in an awful Adidas hat and what looks to be a XXL Champion plain black sweater (you know, the classic plain hoodies that we all wore in middle school).  Anyways, he was at our table taking shots with us and drinking from OUR BOTTLE.  I remember thinking to myself…

  1. Why the hell does he dress like a fuckin scrub?
  2. What the fuck, you’re a NFL QB.  Why are you drinking from our bottle?!?!?!”

Now I know why.  I forgive you Dak.

*I’ll never understand how Tim Tebow was a starting quarterback in the league.  I mean look at that Chiefs game.  2/9 for 68 yards… they seriously only threw the ball NINE times and completed TWO passes.  Wtf were they doing?  Running the triple option?

Group B:  “Are you serious?  It’s Drew Brees/Tom Brady”

9.  Drew Brees:

NFL single season passing yard leaders since 2006:

2017 Tom Brady (40) 4,577
2016 Drew Brees (37) 5,208
2015 Drew Brees (36) 4,870
2014 Drew Brees (35) 4,952
2014 Ben Roethlisberger (32) 4,952
2013 Peyton Manning (37) 5,477
2012 Drew Brees (33) 5,177
2011 Drew Brees (32) 5,476
2010 Philip Rivers (28) 4,710
2009 Matt Schaub (28) 4,770 (WTF how did this happen)
2008 Drew Brees (29) 5,069
2007 Tom Brady (30) 4,806
2006 Drew Brees (27) 4,418

Drew Brees has lead the league in passing yards in seven of the past 13 seasons and three of the past four.  Brees had the second best odds (+500) this year to lead the league in passing yards.  Let’s say hypothetically that Drew Brees’ odds were +500 to lead the league in passing yards ever year since 2006.  If you bet $100 on Drew Brees every year,  you would have made $3000!!

Brees just broke the record for most career completions, and he’s on the verge of becoming the NFL’s all-time passing leader he just broke the record for all-time leader in passing yards.  Is Drew Brees underrated?   Seriously?   Why doesn’t Brees name come up in conversation when we talk about the best quarterbacks of all time?  I really have no idea.

But at age 39, how many years does Brees have left?  I’m guessing maybe 2-3 years at MAX?  That’s the only reason I have Brees this low on the list.  What would Brees’ career be like if the Dolphins weren’t effin idiots?  New Orleans forever owes Drew Brees. If it wasn’t for Drew Brees, they wouldn’t even have a football team right now.

Fake Trade Scenario – Brady for Brees…who says no right now?  I think the Saints?

8.  Tom Brady: $22 million

The Greatest QB of all time is number eight on my list.  I can only think of seven QBs the Pats would/could trade Tom Brady for.  Patriot fans won’t admit it, but Belichick would trade Brady right now for any of the seven QBs below.  Shit, if he could, Belichick would trade Tom Brady for Jimmy Garoppolo and a fresh new hoodie.

He’s 41 years old and I think this is his last year in the NFL.  What do the Patriots plan on doing after Tom Brady retires?  I don’t think the Patriots even know.  But I’m sick of Tom Brady so I’m not even going to waste my time writing about him.

This is the greatest QB of all time… smh.

brady.gif

Group A:  “Completely untradeable – why are you even calling us.

7.  Cam Newton: $21 million

Ahhhh everyone’s favorite, Cam Newton.  You either love him or you hate him.

I’ll never understand this play from Cam in the Super Bowl.  I’ve been a Cam guy my whole life.  But I’m not sure why he didn’t dive for that ball.  I can’t defend him on this one.  He said he was worried about hurting himself.   But c’mon, it’s a 6 point game in the Super Bowl with 4 minutes left!  Is this why people hate Cam?

cam dive.gif
Since entering the league, the Panthers have made the playoffs in four of his seven seasons, including four of the past five.  In 2015, Cam was the MVP of the league and took his team to the Super Bowl.  He was also ranked as the Top Player on the NFL Top 100 Players of 2016 by his peers.  That was only three years ago.  You don’t think he’s a better QB now than he was three years ago?  He’s only 29 years old and it feels like people forgot about Cam.

Check out his numbers from the 2015 season:  15-1 record, 60% completion rate, 3,837 yards passing, 35 TDs, 10 INTs, 636 rushing yards, and 10 rushing TDs.

Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh! Hey Cam, people think you’re overrated!

cam2.gif

PS:  He should have never said this, but you have to admit it was funny as hell.

 

6.  Deshaun Watson: $3 million

$5 million a year for Deshaun Watson.  Deshaun was the 12th pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Here’s a list of teams that passed on Watson (the ones that desperately needed a QB are in red):

  • Browns
  • Bears
  • 49ers
  • Jaguars
  • Titans
  • Jets
  • Chargers
  • Panthers
  • Bengals
  • Chiefs
  • Saints

How many of those teams need/needed QBs?!?!  Are you kidding me?  Every team that needed a QB that year should lose a future first round pick.  Everyone in the Bears front office should be fired for trading up to select Trubisky over Mahomes and Watson.   Everyone should be fired by Ari Gold.

What made you think he wasn’t going to be a legit QB in the league???   He showed up for the National Championship game- TWICE!  That’s all I need to fuckin know about Watson.  Not once, but TWICE.  Showed up, put his dick on the table and said, “I’m the baddest m-fer in this game.  I’m going to throw for 400 yards and 3 TDs.”

His two national championship games stats (both versus Alabama):

2015:  45-40 loss – 405 passing yards and 4 TDs.

2016:  35-31 win – 420 passing yards and 3 TDs.

You know Malcom Gladwell’s whole Blink Test about how spontaneous decisions are often times the best decisions?  Watson is the perfect example of this.  I guarantee you every scout that watched Watson play thought to themselves, “Wow, he’s pretty fuckin incredible.  He should be the number one pick in the draft.”  But instead, you know what they did?  They dug and dug til they found things about Watson they didn’t like.  You can’t tell me you watched those games and thought to yourself,  “Holy shit, the kid’s fuckin legit.”

And guess what?  He torched the league (omg shocker) and played like a MVP candidate before tearing his ACL.  His last game versus Seattle?  He became the first player in NFL history to pass for 400+ yards, 4+ TD passes, and rush for 50+ yards in a single game.  Remember when the Texans started Tom Savage over Watson?  Bill O’Brien should have gotten fired for that.  Coaches deserve to get fired for decisions like that.  That tells me a lot about a man.  Bill O’Brien would be the perfect guy to go to a bar with.  He would just pick the ugliest girl at the bar.

Look at this play against the Bengals.

watson 2.gif

Ok, and then this play is just ridiculous.  Are you kidding me?!?

watson 1.gif

 

5.  Russell Wilson: $24 million

I hate Russell Wilson.  He’s too nice.  But the dude makes plays and wins football games. He has a .647 win % (only second to Tom Brady) and makes plays like this:

Wtf Play 1.russ 1.gif

Wtf Play 2.  That’s a QB. wilson.gif

Wtf Play 3.

4.gif

HOW DOES HE MAKE THIS PLAY?!?!

russ best.gif

Ciara leaving Future for Russell Wilson is laugh out loud funny.  I can’t think of two dudes any more different.

4.  Aaron Rodgers: $21 million

Its simple.  He’s the best QB in the league right now and it’s not even close.  The Packers are legitimate Super Bowl contenders every year because of Aaron Rodgers.  It’s kind of ridiculous to be honest.  No team depends more on one player than Green Bay.  Without Rodgers, the Packers go from Super Bowl contenders to one of the worst teams in football.  That’s not an exaggeration.  They’re NSYNC without Justin Timberlake, they’re Destiny’s Child without Beyonce, they’re the Bulls without Michael Jordan.  Is Aaron Rodgers actually underrated? He’s the Lebron James of the NFL right?  He should be the MVP every year right?

I know what you’re thinking, Rodgers should be number one on this list.  But remember the rules.  Would you rather have Rodgers for the next four years at $21 million a year or Wentz/Mahomes/Goff for a third of the price.  Just look at the Packers roster compared to the Eagles, Rams, and Vikings.

Since Rodgers became the starting QB in 2008, the Packers have missed the Playoffs TWICE: once in 2008 (his first year as the starting QB) and last year (when he was forced out after nine games).

He’s the all-time Passer Rating Career Leader with a rating of 103.6 – no other QB in league history has a career passer rating higher than 100.  He’s thrown 320 TDs compared to only 79 interceptions, the best touchdown to interception ratio in NFL history (45 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions in 2011).  He’s completed at least 60% of his passes in every season.  Another cool little stat?  He hasn’t thrown a pick 6 since Week 9 of the 2009 season.  2009! Remember in 2013 when Matt Schaub threw a pick six in 4 straight games?

Rodgers is 34 years old and probably has about 4-5 more ELITE years left in him.  Will he win another Super Bowl?  He kind of has to, right?  Talent wise, there’s no doubt that Rodgers is one of the greatest quarterbacks ever, but to be considered one of the best, you need more than one Super Bowl ring.  Because at the end of the day, its all about the ringzzzz.

3. Carson Wentz: $7 million

2. Jared Goff: $7 million

1.  Patrick Mahomes: $4 million

WHAT A FUCKIN TRIO.  All three are in the under age 25 club.  It’s the three “I was supposed to be next but I’m here motherfucker” guys.  Watson is close, but I can’t include him in this group yet.  These three guys are literally untradeable right now.  You’re paying your STAR QB $4-7 million for the next two to three years.  It’s going to be interesting to see how their next contracts play out, especially for Goff and Wentz since they have the same agent.  Do they get the same exact contract?

Through Week 4, Mahomes and Goff have been two of the best QBs in the league (Wentz is still trying to find his juice).  Mahomes leads the league in touchdowns with 14 and Goff is second with 11.  Goff leads the league in QBR and Mahomes is a close second.  Goff is second in yards per attempt at 10.49 and Mahomes is 4th with 8.70.

These guys are close.  Closer than Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley (they were way too close by the way).  Goff is my guy and I think he has the potential to be the best one out of that group.  Wentz is ranked third in this group because he’s two years older than Goff and Mahomes.  I have to admit, I had Mahomes at 10 when I first made this list, but I had to move him to the top spot after the first five games.  Am I going to look back at this in three years and think what the f*** was I smoking?  Maybe.  But right now I don’t think there’s a single QB you would rather start your team with.  The MNF game against Denver was a BIG TIME performance from Mahomes.  The Goff versus Wentz (2016 draft) and Watson versus Mahomes (2017 draft) storylines are going to be incredible for the next ten years.

2 comments on “2018 NFL QB Trade Value Part II”

  1. “The Redskins drafted RGIII with the first overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Then with the 102nd pick, they drafted Kirk Cousins. What do you think RGIII was thinking? Has that ever happened before? ”

    Here’s something similar: In 1989 the Cowboys drafted Troy Aikman first overall. Then a couple months later they drafted Steve Walsh in the Supplemental draft (surrendering their first round pick in 1990 for the right to do so).

    Like

  2. “The Redskins drafted RGIII with the first overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Then with the 102nd pick, they drafted Kirk Cousins. What do you think RGIII was thinking? Has that ever happened before? ”

    Here’s something similar:
    In 1989, the Cowboys drafted Troy Aikman first overall. Then a couple months later they took Steve Walsh in the supplemental draft (and surrendered their 1990 first round pick to do so).

    The Cowboys spent back-to-back first round picks on QB’s.

    Since draft picks generally discount one round per year, you could also look at it as the Cowboys drafted QB’s in the first 2 rounds in 1989.

    Liked by 1 person

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