2018 NFL QB Trade Value Part I

Which QB has the highest trade value in the league right now? Here’s Part I (32-18) of the NFL QB Trade Value Rankings. No, Jared Goff isn’t #1 or is he?!?!

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I stole this column idea from Bill Simmons.  He used to do this every year for the NBA.  This is my attempt at coming up with a 2018 NFL QB Trade Value column.  Which QB has the highest trade value in the league?  This was hard as shit.  A lot harder than a NBA edition would be.  A lot of…..

“Yea Player A is better BUT Player B makes 10x less.”

“This guy only has two years left.”

“Eh I don’t know, he probably deserves to be higher/lower.”

Here are the rules:


 1.  Salaries matter.  I decided to use this years Salary Cap hit and pretend it’s the QBs salary over the next four years.  So for example, JIMMY G. at $37 MILLION every year for THE NEXT FOUR YEARS (I still don’t get how Jimmy G. got this contract).  Would you rather pay Pat Mahomes $3 million or Matt Stafford $26.5 million every year for the next four years?

2  Age matters. Would you rather have Drew Brees for the next two seasons or Jared Goff for the next 10?

3  Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded without cap ramifications but with luxury-tax ramifications. So if Team A tells Team B, “We’ll trade you Player X for Player Y,” would Team B make the deal?

4  Concentrate on degrees. Neither Pats nor Eagles would make a Brady-Wentz trade, but the Pats would at least say, “Wow, Carson Wentz is available?” and have a meeting about it (and probably drive Tom Brady to the airport), while the Eagles would say, “There’s no fuckin’ way we’re trading Carson Wentz.” That counts in the big scheme of things.

5  The list runs in reverse order (Nos. 32 to 1). So if Philip Rivers comes in at No. 16, players 1 through 15 are all players about whom the Chargers would probably say, “We hate giving up Rivers, but we definitely have to consider this deal.” And they wouldn’t trade him straight-up for any player listed between Nos. 17 and 32


This was REALLY hard.

But I gave it a shot.  Here is Part I (32-18) of the NFL QB Trade Value rankings:

Group A: The “I can’t believe we’re stuck with these guys.”

32.  Joe Flacco: $25 million

Yes, you read that right. Can you imagine paying Flacco $25 million per season? GULP.  Ray Lewis got away with murder but HOLY CRAP JOE FLACCO!  Since their Super Bowl win in 2012 (and his monster contract extension), the Ravens have made the playoffs ONCE.  They’re 37-36 and haven’t won their division ONCE.  Paying your QB $25 million a year to go 37-36 is a death sentence.  Joe Flacco for $25 million a year.  Jesus Christ.  How many times will the cameras flash to Lamar Jackson after a Flacco INT this year?  O/U set at 13.5.

Remember when Ray Lewis ripped Joe Flacco:

http://www.espn.com/blog/baltimore-ravens/post/_/id/31763/ray-lewis-calls-out-joe-flacco-for-lacking-passion-for-the-game

31.  Derek Carr: $25 million

According to NFL’s leading stats expert, Bud Goode, the most important stat for a QB to be rated by is yards per pass attempt.  Among QBs that qualify (minimum 1500 pass attempts), Derek Carr is TIED for 162nd (out of 185 QBs) at 6.6 yard per pass attempt.  Dead last among active QBs.  You hate to see this.  This throw was absolutely amazing. What a throw from the $25 million quarterback.  I love me some Derek Carr.

cdcarr.gif

You also hate to see your new coach blast you like this after your first game:

“Cooper was open deep, he was open a couple times. For whatever reason, we didn’t go there.”

I would love to be in a Carr-Gruden QB camp/meeting session.  How amazing would that be?  “GREAT THROW DEREK!  I LOVE IT.  YOU’RE A TRUE GRUDEN GRINDER!”  I thought it was HILARIOUS that the Texans passed on Derek Carr because his older brother was a BUST for them.  Is Derek Carr the most overrated QB in the league right now?  I think so.

30.  Eli Manning: $22 million

Two-time Super Bowl Champion, two-time Super Bowl MVP – both against the Patriots.  Pretty f’in impressive.

Last year Eli threw the least number of TDs since 2013*  BUT he also threw the least number of INTs since 2008!  Eli wasn’t THAT BAD last year.  He finished the year 15th in TDs and 18th in total yards but DEAD LAST IN YARDS PER ATTEMPT.

At age 37, I think the Giants would trade Eli for anyone except Nate Pederman.  Actually, they probably would.  This is the same organization that benched him for Geno Smith.  We’ll miss the Eli face when he’s gone.

eli face

*Eli’s 2013 season:  Easily the worst year of his career.  18 TDS- the fewest in his career, excluding his rookie year where he only started six games.  Twenty seven INTs- the most in his career.  This was the year after they won the Super Bowl.  Too many Natty Lights for Eli in the off-season.

29.  Blake Bortles: $10 million

Blake gonna Blake.  If you make Blake a game manager, he’s NOT THAT BAD.  IF you ask Blake to throw the ball 40 times in a game, you are FUCKED.  I am just waiting for the moment Jalen Ramsey loses it and goes to the media about Blake Bortles.  That is going to happen 100%.  Odds are set at -500.  Bortles threw for 4,428 yards and 35 touchdowns in 2015 (both franchise records).  I wonder how many of those came in garbage time?

Bortles versus the Bills in the playoffs last year: 12/23, 87 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, and 88 RUSHING YARDS.  Yes, he had more rushing yards than passing yards.  BLAKE VICK!!!!!

28. Ryan Tannehill: $9 million

Ryan Tannehill’s record as a starting QB: 37-40.

  • 2012: 7-9
  • 2013: 8-8
  • 2014: 8-8
  • 2015: 6-10
  • 2016: 8-5
  • 2017:  Missed due to injury.

WE NEED A JEFF FISHER-TANNEHILL SEASON!!!!!!!!!  But in all seriousness, Tannehill has thrown 13 or fewer INTs in four of his previous five seasons.  Is it ok to call him a poor man’s Alex Smith?  Nine million a year isn’t too bad.  This feels a little low, but I can’t move a .500 guy up any further. Tannehill is a weird story.  He started as a QB in college, switched over to WR, then switched back to play QB IN THE NFL.  What sense does that make?  We see QBs play WR in the NFL all the time.  But a college WR playing QB in the NFL?  WTF.  Fake NFL Trade Machine trade propsal: Tannehill for Bortles. Who says no?

Did you know Tannehill owns the NFL RECORD for the most consecutive pass completions, with 25 completions?  I know you didn’t.

27.  Case Keenum: $15 million

Case Keenum, NCAA’s all time leader in total passing yards, touchdowns, and completions.  But I hate this contract.  Fifteen million for Case Keenum is way too much.  It tells me something whens a team goes 11-3 (one game away from the Super Bowl) and doesn’t bring their QB back for another shot.  The Vikings were close last year.  That pick 6 early in the NFC championship game killed them.  The Vikings might be (probably are) the best team in the NFL, and they decided to pass on Case Keenum.  They saw enough to say, “Case was good for us last year, but we can’t win the Super Bowl with him as our QB.”  Case Keenum starting at QB for the Broncos line is set at 1.5 years.  Are you taking the over/under on that?

The Vikings had Case Keenum, Sam Bradford, and Teddy Bridgewater last year.  It’s too bad they couldn’t fuse those three QBs together to make one ultimate quarterback: Tecasam Keefordwater.  Would that even be a top 10 QB?

26.  Andy Dalton: $16 million

The Red Rocket.  The Ginger.  The Dalton Line, created by Chris Wesseling, is the hierarchy of NFL quarterbacks. Which player is the “worst” of the acceptable franchise quarterbacks?  Good enough to build around but not good enough to take you to the Super Bowl.  It’s a gift and a curse.  Do you think the Bengals regret drafting Andy Dalton?  Probably not.  They’ve been pretty good for the past couple of years, but they’ve been stuck in the middle, either in the playoffs for one game or missing the playoffs by one game.  It’s the worst place to be as a franchise.  You want to be contending for a championship or you want to be dead last.  What’s crazy about this run is that Marvin Lewis has been the Bengals coach SINCE 2003!!!!  2003!!!!!!!! What?!?!?!

I love the Dalton Line.  Who replaces Dalton as the new Dalton Line when he’s gone?  Who’s the Dalton Line in the NBA?  Damian Lillard?

25.  Ben Roethlisberger: $23 million

The only reason Big Ben is this low is because this is probably be going to be his last season.  The Steelers would never trade him, or would they?  Since 2011, he’s thrown at least 20 TDs every season, including 29 last year, which is tied for third best in his career.  He also attempted 561 passes last year, his most since 2014.  In their playoff loss last year against the Jaguars, he threw for 469 yards and 5 TDs.

So maybe he’s not done after this year? Wait, he just threw three INTs against the Browns last weekend. No, he’s definitely done.  Ben and Eli owe AB and Odell each about an extra $10 million for adding five years to their QB lifespan.

Ben won 2 Super Bowls in the first five years of his career but none in the past ten.  He’s also the youngest QB to ever win a Super Bowl.

Group B:  The “We just drafted these guys, we don’t know how good they’re going to be yet” and Jameis/Mariota. 

24.  Jameis Winston: $8 million

What happened to Jameis?  This whole Jameis/Mariota thing has been kind of weird.  Drafted one and two, and they haven’t done anything in the league.  I don’t think this is talked about enough.  Both guys have losing records and a combined one playoff win.

Winston:  11,646 yards with 69 touchdown passes and 44 interceptions in three NFL seasons.

Mariota: 9,476 yards, 58 TDS, and 34 interceptions.

Winston’s career record as a starter: 18-27 and one suspension for harassing an Uber driver.

Mariota’s record: 20-22 and one playoff win.

Are they just average QBs in the league?  I’m not saying they suck, but didn’t we all expect more from both quarterbacks?  They’re going into year four now and if this isn’t the year they show out, what’s next?  Are we sure that Jameis will be on the Bucs after this season?  If there’s a re-draft, Mariota gets drafted before Winston, right?  Will Jameis get in trouble again or lead his team to the playoffs first?

23. Josh Allen: $4 million

I remember when I first saw Allen throwing at the combine thinking HOLY F$(#$@#( SHIT.  ROCKET ARM ALERT!!!  I also know that Jalen Ramsey thinks he’s “trash.”

“I think Allen is trash,” Ramsey told GQ. “I don’t care what nobody say. He’s trash. And it’s going to show too. That’s a stupid draft pick to me. We play them this year, and I’m excited as hell. I hope he’s their starting quarterback.”

I also have zero faith in a QB doing well in Buffalo.  I know the Browns get shit for this, but what about the Bills?  Their starting quarterbacks since 2005:

  • 2005-2006: JP Losman
  • 2007-2008: Trent Edwards
  • 2009-2012: Ryan Fitzpatrick
  • 2013: EJ Manuel (That was an awful pick)
  • 2014: Kyle Orton
  • 2015: Matt Cassel
  • 2016-2017: Tyrod Taylor

I mean Fitzpatrick had a couple of good years but that’s not a good list of QBs.  What makes you think Josh Allen will do well in Buffalo?  He’s only ranked this high because of his ROCKET ARM, huge hands, and his salary, which is only $4 million.

josh allen.gif

Actually, nevermind.  He’s going to be awful.

22.  Mitch Trubisky: $7 million

Mitchell Trubisky.  I have watched Mitchell play football once and that was this past Monday night versus the Packers.  Nagy was doing everything he could to protect Mitchell.  I thought he was most effective running with the ball which probably isn’t a good thing for a quarterback.

But how about this for a Trubisky stat:

2017- Passes past the LOS:

  • Left: 17/45 (37.8%), 272 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs.  Passer Rating of 47.6.
  • Right/Middle: 131/209 (62.7%), 1625 yards, 5 TDs, 5 INTs.  Passer Rating of 84.7.

Week 1 against the Packers- Passes past the LOS:

  • Left: 0/1, 0 yards, 0 TDs.
  • Right/Middle: 12/15 (80%), 133 yards, 0 TDs.

FE7BDD91-D3B3-478B-9D1D-FB53B905A2B0

WHAT????  How is this a thing with a NFL starting quarterback?  Next time I watch the Bears ,this will have my FULL ATTENTION.

21.  Josh Rosen: $4 million

The Rosen One is my favorite QB out of this draft class.  Yes, mostly because he played at UCLA.

I know people hate Josh Rosen.  I get why some people hate him.  Especially, after he told reporters, “There were nine mistakes made ahead of me, and I’m going to make sure they all know it was a mistake. I thought I should have been picked at 1, 2 or 3. I dropped and I was pissed. I was really, really angry.”

But you know what?  That’s exactly what I want my QB to say!  That’s exactly the kind of guy I want playing QB for my team.  Cocky, confident, and California cooooooooooooool.  I want my QB to be an ALPHA and that’s what ALPHA’s say.  You want your QB to roll over and give a soft ass answer like, “I’m just lucky to be in this situation, I can’t complain.”  FUCK NO.  I want my QB to be a M’fer.  You know who loved what Rosen said?  EVERYONE in his locker room and that’s all that matters.  I’m not saying he’s Aaron Rodgers at all but you CAN’T say they’re not the EXACT SAME PERSON.

Josh Rosen will be the best QB out of this draft class, and I’m pissed he’s in the NFC West.

 

20.  Marcus Mariota: $ 7 million

See above under Jameis Winston for comments.

19.  Baker Mayfield: $6 million

Serious question:  What happens first?  Hue gets fired or Baker starts for the Browns?  Right now I have Hue at -200 and Baker at -110.  I was shocked when the Browns drafted Baker with the first pick.  I thought it was going to be Darnold 100000%, but Baker has the story to become the QB that Cleveland needs.  He walked on and started at Texas Tech then transferred to Oklahoma and walked on AGAIN AND WON THE QB COMPETITION. The rest is history.  Don’t you think the Browns wanted/need a QB like that? Not a lot of spread offense and small guys make it in the NFL but not a lot of guys walk on to TWO different teams and win the starting job.  Oh yea, and he won the Heisman.  I’m rooting for Baker.

18.  Sam Darnold:  $6 million

Can you imagine your first NFL throw going the other way for a pick 6?  That’s exactly what happened to Darnold.  Besides that, Darnold looked pretty good on MNF against the Lions, but let’s all calm down, it was one game.  Every Jets fan is going crazy right now.  Darnold is going to have some ugly games where he throws 3 INTs.  This is probably too high for Darnold RIGHT NOW but wouldn’t you take a chance on him over the next 10 years versus every QB behind him in this ranking (and probably a couple of the QBs ranked ahead of him)?

I can’t believe the Giants passed on Darnold to draft a running back.

 

…to be continued.  Part II coming soon. 

 

1 comments on “2018 NFL QB Trade Value Part I”

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